Numbers: When will Surrey pass Vancouver in population?
Okay, look, it’s not a competition – but how many times have you heard “within ten years Surrey will have more people than Vancouver”?
While Surrey may be one of the fastest growing municipalities in Canada, it’s not like Vancouver has stopped growing. Indeed, in what is probably a surprise to most people, the September CMHC numbers show year to date more housing starts in Vancouver than in Surrey for two years running:
[If too hard to read, you can find the data here at CMHC on page 23.]
One day Surrey should pass Vancouver - given how it’s more than double the size. But it doesn’t look likely any time soon – maybe not even in the next half century.
In an amusing piece of statistical diplomacy, Metro Vancouver’s population projections out to 2041 have both Vancouver and Surrey with populations of 740,000. Who would have guessed?
But with less egos at stake, the provincial agency, B.C. Statistics, projects that Vancouver in 2036 will be at 828,789 and Surrey at 748,383.
You can see what B.C. Statistics is projecting year by year below the fold …
|
Surrey
|
Vancouver
|
|
|
1986
|
203,583
|
459,309
|
|
1987
|
216,061
|
463,483
|
|
1988
|
228,326
|
470,690
|
|
1989
|
242,758
|
478,247
|
|
1990
|
258,394
|
483,989
|
|
1991
|
269,042
|
491,784
|
|
1992
|
282,887
|
501,045
|
|
1993
|
294,566
|
506,382
|
|
1994
|
306,557
|
517,976
|
|
1995
|
322,333
|
529,936
|
|
1996
|
334,876
|
545,123
|
|
1997
|
348,711
|
554,340
|
|
1998
|
358,882
|
560,268
|
|
1999
|
367,719
|
566,555
|
|
2000
|
376,667
|
572,619
|
|
2001
|
387,836
|
581,013
|
|
2002
|
399,682
|
586,728
|
|
2003
|
406,872
|
592,830
|
|
2004
|
415,028
|
598,410
|
|
2005
|
424,398
|
604,353
|
|
2006
|
431,908
|
612,632
|
|
2007
|
442,186
|
623,535
|
|
2008
|
453,748
|
629,895
|
|
2009
|
466,570
|
643,261
|
|
2010
|
481,949
|
659,214
|
|
2011
|
491,001
|
664,825
|
|
2012
|
500,081
|
670,431
|
|
2013
|
509,881
|
677,230
|
|
2014
|
520,135
|
684,661
|
|
2015
|
530,743
|
691,950
|
|
2016
|
541,292
|
699,304
|
|
2017
|
551,692
|
706,665
|
|
2018
|
562,086
|
714,030
|
|
2019
|
572,711
|
721,318
|
|
2020
|
583,356
|
728,361
|
|
2021
|
593,946
|
735,301
|
|
2022
|
604,634
|
742,392
|
|
2023
|
615,277
|
749,329
|
|
2024
|
625,865
|
756,096
|
|
2025
|
636,380
|
762,668
|
|
2026
|
646,787
|
769,053
|
|
2027
|
657,139
|
775,457
|
|
2028
|
667,508
|
781,743
|
|
2029
|
677,813
|
788,154
|
|
2030
|
688,114
|
794,470
|
|
2031
|
698,368
|
800,648
|
|
2032
|
708,526
|
806,697
|
|
2033
|
718,608
|
812,468
|
|
2034
|
728,620
|
818,080
|
|
2035
|
738,545
|
823,514
|
|
2036
|
748,383
|
828,789
|
What do housing starts really mean though? There are 4 new houses under construction on my block alone, but all of them are replacing older homes that once occupied the lots. If they’re being counted as housing starts then those figures are meaningless when it comes to predicting growth.
Looking at all the multiple lot realty signs along Granville/Oak/Cambie these days it’s clear that Vancouver is densifying in a big way. Individual homes are being replaced with row house complexes and 3 storey condos.
If the developer friendly Vision Vancouver people lose to the even more developer friendly NPA later this month expect to see the single family home disappear from every arterial in Vancouver very soon.
Well, Vision won, but honestly, I wouldn’t cry if single family homes disappeared from the arterial roads. It’s a poor use for that land and while single family homes are good, there’s plenty of them on streets that aren’t Cambie where more people want to, and should be allowed to, live on. It benefits people in the nearby homes to, because it puts them closer to the amenities that density brings with it.