Numbers: past population projections in the Lower Mainland

Back in the 1990s, Alan Artibise and Michael Seelig wrote “From Desolation to Hope” -  a book about the future of the Lower Mainland.  In it, they published population projections from 1990 on what various cities would grow to in the next 20 years. 

Well, here we are.  And how did those projections turn out?

CITY                     PROJECTED                        ACTUAL

Surrey                 550,000                              460,000

Vancouver          540,000                             620,000

Abbotsford           250,000                             135,000

Burnaby               175,000                             220,000

Keep in mind, these projections were done in 1990 – just a 20-year projection horizon, but out by almost 25 percent - and almost 100 percent in the case of Abbotsford!  They were done at the height of the suburban expansion of the late 1980s when we had higher population growth, and Yaletown and other downtown districts hadn’t taken shape as places other than on paper.

But given that the suburbs didn’t grow as fast as thought likely, while the core and town centres surpassed expectations, it’s another reflection of a regional plan that is Actually Working!*

* As a side note, one staff member involved in the GVRD’s planning recalls:

Battles were waged to disallow growth to Richmond (a flood plain) and the north part of Surrey (crossing to South of Fraser) - i.e., Whalley . … The line including Whalley was drawn very late in the process, and with much reluctance by GVRD.  At the early part of the study, the North Shore was wooed to take up growth and be given the status of Growth Management Area  – but to no avail.  None of the North Shore muni’s wanted growth so Whalley became the next best thing.