The Madness Continues – 2
The first part of “Madness” was about the infamous ten-day traffic jam in Beijing last August. Then there were the record 140 traffic jams prior to the Mid-Autumn Festival in September.
So I asked:
One could literally do the calculations on the back of an envelope to show that there was no way they could accommodate an unlimited number of vehicles – and yet they were trying to convert to Motordom as fast as possible. No doubt thinking they could build more roads to handle the demand.
Now what?
Clearly, a human sacrifice was called for:
According to Singapore’s Straits Times, Beijing’s vice mayor in charge of traffic management has resigned and has been sent to the far-western region of Xinjiang as officials take drastic steps to ease chronic gridlock in the Chinese capital. Huang Wei’s resignation and appointment as vicechairman of Xinjiang were approved December 23, the official Xinhua news agency said – the same day that Beijing announced plans to slash the number of new cars in the city in 2011.
Enter the Law of Unexpected Consequences:
Beijing’s attempts to curb congestion in the capital appear to have backfired, according to the China Youth Daily. The plan would see the municipal government take various measures in 2011, including limiting car purchases by placing restrictions on obtaining license plates and charging more fees for traffic congestion. Beijing started soliciting public opinions on the plan last Monday.
However, the announcement of the plan created a rush to buy cars among city residents to reduce the increased cost of vehicle purchases or avoid restrictions on obtaining license plates. The increase of car purchases also pushed up car prices in the city. Auto dealers have cancelled all sales campaigns and raised car prices, while more than 400 dealerships are reported to have nearly have run out of stock. …
In the first week of December, 21,000 new cars were added to the roads of Beijing, a 100% increase over the amount added during the same period of 2009, according to the figures released by China’s Association of Automobile Manufacturers.”
Thanks to Transport Newsletter #184
Unintended consequences, possibly, but surely a predictable – and from the consumers’ perspective entirely rational (in the economic sense) – reaction to the announcement of intended future legislation.
Given that the Chinese authorities do not normally see the need to consult – and all the other things other governments have to do before changing the law – it is a bit encouraging, in an odd sort of way, that they are acknowledging that they made a bit of mess with this one.
I’m wondering if rather than effectively rationing cars it might have been better to announce something akin to tolls, parking surcharges, etc. Those kinds of disincentives seem less likely to have encouraged a surge in car buying.
Rationing cars/licenses seems like a stereotypical central-planning solution (“we have calculated that X cars is acceptable”) rather than a market-driven solution (“we will raise the metropolitan parking surcharge until an average of 5% of parking spaces are empty”).