Annals of Motordom – 18

An occasional update on items from Motordom – the world of auto dominance

BEIJING, ON THE RAPID ROAD TO MOTORDOM

The New York Times politely reports on how China’s capital is going insane:

As of December, Beijing counted 4.7 million registered vehicles, with 2,000 new ones joining the clog each day. That is more than 700,000 new vehicles this year…  When the number reaches 6.5 million, traffic researchers calculate, the Beijing streets will be fully saturated.

To repeat: “fully saturated.”  And they could have figured that out on the back of an envelope.  But they won’t stop.

Through November, car purchases were up 34 percent over 2009, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said. And 2009 sales were 46 percent greater than those in 2008.

We are already hearing publicly about epic traffic jams in Beijing.

In September, another vacation exodus — this time for Autumn Festival — gridlocked the entire city, leading to 140 traffic backups in the evening rush hour.

… that episode prompted President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to weigh in, asking Beijing city and Communist Party leaders what was to be done…. Mr. Hu was said to have rejected some of the more restrictive proposals as too draconian for a progressive national capital. The city opted instead to throw more traffic officers onto the streets.

The leadership, who see the world through chauffered windows, believe that they must imitate and surpass the West, so fail to accept the lesson learned elsewhere in places like Singapore:  No countervailing measures, including a massive increase in public transportation, will work unless accompanied by contraints on the number of cars. 

They’re thinking about it.

Thus, the latest draft proposal, a clear compromise of better public transportation — longer subways and bike racks — and the parking lots, tunnels and surface roads that Beijing’s auto-centric society craves. And it hints at more restrictive measures, including limiting new car purchases to buyers who can prove Beijing residence, or even capping the number of cars that can be registered here annually.

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THE MOTORIST’S DILEMMA

Terrific piece by historian Brian Ladd on “The Motorist’s Dilemma,” or What’s a poor motorist to think?  “They’ve always known that bicyclists are scum, but now they aren’t quite sure why.”

Worth reading if for no other reason than you’ll find out:

(1) How the station wagon got its name,

(2) That Margaret Thatcher did not in fact say what she’s famous for saying about losers on buses,

(3) What George Bush did say.

Also, great links to Todd Litman on The Selfish Car, and Tom Vanderbilt on how not having a car became Hollywood shorthand for loser.

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THE SAFETY EQUIVALENT OF JEVONS  PARADOX

The Jevons paradox  is the proposition that technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource – Wikipedia.  And it’s true for more than economics.

A good example of techno-inflation occurred when the first anti-lock brakes appeared, in Germany, in 1972. As part of a trial, half of Munich’s taxi fleet was fitted with ABS brakes, while the other half was left standard as control.

Six months of data later revealed that the ABS-equipped taxis had a much higher accident rate than the standard cars. How could this be? The ABS was supposed to be a safety device.

Detailed investigation revealed two crucial facts. Because the ABS cars stopped more efficiently, they were often hit from behind by standard cars that couldn’t stop as well. The second was the discovery of the phenomenon of ‘safety consumption’. Drivers of ABS cars were found to have driven at higher average speeds and braked later than other drivers.

Because they thought their cars were safer, techno-inflation made them take more risks. This consumed the supposed safety margin offered by the new technology.

This doesn’t mean ABS brakes are bad. It’s natural for us to want things to be better. But we need to be careful not to think that everything can be improved, or that every supposed improvement will lead to a better outcome.

Though most of today’s cars have ABS brakes, it’s hard not to think this apparent advance is there to balance the hazard of more powerful engines.

- From Andrew Herrick, ABC Radio National: Ockham’s Razor, 27/6/10

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